Trust Fu Youxing, why guangfa Ruiyang three years will be a good choice?
“I originally held The steady growth of Fu Youxing guangfa, now I see that he is also the management of Guangfa Ruiyang three years fixed open subscription, want to change the past, what do you think?”A friend wants my opinion.I understand my friend’s appeal.The steady growth of GF is the bottom position in his portfolio, which has been held for more than six years since the second half of 2015.Since it is a long-term hold, is it right to choose Guangfa Ruiyang fixed open three years, there will be higher annual income in theory?”These two are just different types of products, different risk levels, you can according to their own risk tolerance, the next three years is expected to be fixed in part of the fund for guangfa Ruiyang three years.”That’s my answer.Considering that this is actually a very representative question with realistic significance for the current market, I hereby write a special article to elaborate my thinking.And “slim” fund to make friends first of all, I have confidence in Fu Youxing’s ability to select stocks.He’s a long-established fund manager, and regular EarlETF readers know that I was a part of his broad growth story when I was on the Gold Saint.Therefore, this article, I won’t to Fu Youxing investment ability and fund positions do too much analysis, is discussed here, by the same Fu Youxing management, one is a mixed type fund shares debt, guangfa steady growth, one is slant hybrid funds, guangfa huang Yang three years on, why the latter for friends, may be a better choice.The core reason is what I have mentioned many times before: moderate fund size makes it easier to have excess returns.The following table is the top ten weighted positions of GF Ruiyang in the fourth quarter of 2021, please pay attention to their total market value data.In addition to Zijin Mining, there are more companies with market capitalization of 10 billion yuan, and even the market capitalization of the first and fifth largest stocks is less than 10 billion yuan.In addition, there are a number of heavy stock market capitalization, is just over ten billion.If you look at how many of these stocks are heavily held by other funds, many of them are “out of group” stocks — and embracing “out of group” stocks is supposed to be an important strategy for outperforming in 2021.Guangfa Ruiyang three-year fixed open mix of the top ten heavy stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 next, we look at the steady growth of guangfa in the same period of the top ten weight stocks, 1 trillion market value, 4 billion level, the rest are 10 billion level, the market value of the smallest stocks have 23.7 billion yuan.And from the fund heavy warehouse frequency, few underdog stocks.Gf steady growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, the top ten stocks are also fu Youxing management, but the position is so different?The reason may lie in differences in fund size.According to the data of the fourth quarter of 2021, GDB has steadily increased the share of A and C categories with A total scale of RMB 20.5 billion.This means that if the weight is 3%, it also corresponds to 615 million yuan of holdings.According to the regulation of 10% double position of the fund, gf’s steady growth cannot buy companies with market value less than 6.15 billion yuan;If you consider the liquidity of the reduced holdings, fund managers will be more demanding of the market value and trading activity of the stocks they hold.This means that many excellent small and medium-sized companies, Fu Youxing even if again optimistic about their fundamentals, but also can not be in the broad development of steady growth in the portfolio of heavy positions.But in fact, Fu Youxing’s stock selection ability, well – known.Fund managers in the circle like this evaluation of Fu Youxing: his holdings are not so many traditional white horse leading shares, but they belong to the growth and valuation of a good match for the third and fourth line companies.What these companies have in common is an exceptionally good track and excellent management.After holding two or three years, the company can grow into a second line, a line of varieties.A recent haitong Securities research report on guangfa Ruiyang three years of fixed open positions made a summary, the ability to obtain this excess earnings intuitively presented.According to Haitong Securities, fund managers’ stock selection excess returns have been stable in the remaining 10 quarters, except for the second quarter of 2021.The proportion of industries with positive excess returns is basically above 60%, or even more than 80% in several quarters.But the fund manager’s excellent ability to pick stocks must also be based on a large enough pool to pick the best of the best.In terms of stock selection pool, because guangfa Ruiyang three years fixed fund size is small, limited, the alternative pool will naturally be larger than guangfa steady growth — for an excellent fund manager, the difficulty of stock selection to earn excess returns will therefore be much lower.From this point of view, based on the belief that Fu Youxing’s stock selection ability this premise, choose more “slim” Guangfa Ruiyang three years fixed open, through stock selection “make money” should be easier.And the regular opening of the setting, and will make this scale “slim” advantage more lasting.As I said before, in recent years, I have become more and more fond of regular open funds and their “long-term closed” characteristics.Because this is an era of information explosion, many excellent fund managers once attention, the original only a few billion or even billions of funds, may in a short time to jump to billions of funds.The most thorough way to avoid the drawbacks such as increasing investment difficulty caused by the explosion of fund size of outstanding fund managers is to choose regular open funds.”Buy and leave”, before the next opening, you can enjoy the advantages of moderate size, no matter how many followers will not affect you to enjoy the excess returns of moderate fund size.For guangfa Ruiyang three years set, this “exclusive period” is three years.Tough decisions and easy money But buying into a three-year closed-end fund in an era when equity holdings were measured in months was an incredibly difficult decision for many people.In my opinion, it is precisely this kind of difficult decision that makes it easier for the holders of GUANGfa Ruiyang three-year fixed opening to make money, and they have really doubled their earnings in the past three years.This is hard and easy, first and foremost, in scale.Because after buying to lock three years, in this pursuit of quick money era, close to “anti-human nature”, so, such a difficult decision, blocked too much base people.Guangfa Ruiyang three-year fixed opening was established on January 31, 2019. At that time, Jimin was still immersed in the pessimistic market atmosphere. Although Fu Youxing was holding, the ipo scale was 673 million yuan.February 7 to February 18, Guangfa Ruiyang three years fixed open (501070) open for redemption.Unfortunately, since 2022, the a-share market volatility has increased, it is expected that at this time dare to go against the trend to purchase three-year fixed products, not too many people.I think, guangfa Ruiyang three years fixed open probability can still be maintained in a very comfortable scale.This is for the recognition of Fu Youxing, willing to go against the trend to buy the base people, in fact, it is a good thing.In the fund circle, there has been an old saying: “good hair is not good to do, good to do bad hair”, behind is the truth of contrarian investment.From many years of base experience, I believe that the more those seemingly difficult, and the mainstream base people out of tune with the choice, the likelihood of making money behind some higher.Of course, hard and easy, also reflected in the “chop hands”.Over the past decade or so, the long-term returns of funds have been good, but the returns on many of their holdings are likely to be well below the growth rate of the fund’s net worth.Why fund long-term return is good, base civilian actual get feeling is not strong;Is also a long-term bull market in the property market, many landlords is full of pot full?A big reason is “long-term investing”.Real estate transaction process is too complicated, high commission fees and taxes, even late a lot of policy, the living will the landlord forced growth period and holding period often since five years – but it is precisely this kind of “forced” to hold for a long time, but for many the landlord in the face of short-term housing market adjustment all not afraid, to get the next round of rise, and a decent income.The fund, as a financial investment tool with strong liquidity, is also too easy to buy and sell, many basic people can not control their hands, often is to buy the grand beauty of the next three or five years, but encounter a few months of decline, forget the original intention, cut meat for the top.Open regularly for three years, which means using coercive means to help Jimin solve the trading impulse.That way, you can’t stand the 2020 slump;In 2021 the extreme differentiation of the market, also can not be moved — it is not in the low cut meat to leave, but can enjoy the rose of time.Position fund managers who trust fund managers are undoubtedly the ones who know best how portfolios work.Accordingly, when choosing fund, might as well go looking at the choice of fund manager himself.Each year, in the fund’s annual report and annual report, the range of fund managers’ and executives’ total fund holdings is published, which is slightly ambiguous but still useful.So, what funds did Fu Youxing buy?According to the fund report, the annual report disclosed in the fund share holder information, his probability is holding in the management of 3 funds.The following table shows the holding positions disclosed when GDB reported steady growth in 2021. It can be seen that The A shares held by Fu Youxing are within the range of 500,000 to 1,000,000 shares, while the shares held by GDB executives and the head of investment and research department are also within the range of 500,000 to 1,000,000 shares.Guangfa steady growth of the current net worth of 1.6 yuan or so, you can estimate the approximate holding scale.Data Source:The above table is from “8.3 The total range of open-ended fund shares held by employees of fund managers at the end of the period”. The following table shows the position data of GUANGfa Ruiyang in 2021. It can be seen that both Fu Youxing and the senior management investment and research directors of Guangfa,The shares held are more than 1 million, and the net value of Gf Ruiyang’s three-year fixed opening before the recent dividend is more than 1.7 yuan. We estimate that the three-year fixed opening share of GF Ruiyang held by Fu Youxing should be higher than GF’s steady growth.Data sources: gf farce Yang open fund center daily news in 2021, three years from the form “8.3 final practitioners hold the open-end fund of fund managers share total interval” since more fund managers hold huang Yang, guangdong development bank as the base, why not consider the next three years in the capital, with gf farce Yang three years away?(Risk note: Views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.Please read the “Fund Contract”, “Recruitment prospectus” and other legal documents before purchase.There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)