Spring Festival Hong Kong stocks, crude oil up hi!Us dollar interest rate cycle will A share “meat” opportunity where?
The Spring Festival has passed so fast that the A-share market will open tomorrow.These days, bull eye jun see friends circle, found a lot of sun snow scenery, this year’s Spring Festival is a bit cold.This week also has a lot of important news, such as the Winter Olympics, Hong Kong stock market surge, THE UK interest rate hike, META stock price avalanche, crude oil broke $90, etc.Before the festival, the bull eye jun threw a problem to everyone, that is, such as this wave of market fall in place, when the bottom of what plate?I see a lot of netizens have said their concerns about the plate, so in the US dollar interest rate expectations, where is the opportunity in the year of the Tiger?During the festival, Bull eye thought about it.Today, Bull eye jun combined with the Spring Festival peripheral market performance and news said.Let’s start with Hong Kong stocks, which traded for half a day on Monday (New Year’s Eve) and were closed for three days before opening on Friday.The Hang Seng index rose 3.24% on Friday, adding 949 points, or 4.02%, over the two trading days.On Friday, the market value of the top is basically up, the main contribution to the index are new energy vehicles and Internet giants, such as Ali up 5.61%, Baidu group up 5.98%, BYD shares up 7.05%, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile rose more than 10%.Banks and insurance also did well.Take A closer look at the Hang Seng Index, you will find that it is not synchronized with the A-share index. As shown in the figure below, the Hang Seng index is still lower than the beginning of 2019, while the Shanghai Composite Index is significantly higher than the beginning of 2019.Therefore, A share index after the festival can fully replicate the strength of the hang Seng index these two days, may be A question mark.On the U.S. stock market, meta-universe concept giant Meta plunged 26.39% Thursday to see if the news has any impact on the A-share meta-universe concept.For the week, the Dow rose 1.05%, the NASDAQ 2.38% and the S&P 1.55%.Major European indexes had a mediocre week, with the FTSE 100 up 0.67%, the CAC-40 down 0.21%, the DAX down 1.43%, the Euro 50 down 1.22% and Italy’s FTMIB up 0.14%.In Asia, the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.7% for the week.In commodities, WTI crude futures topped $90 for the week, with the main contract hitting $93.17 on Friday before settling at $92.31.The surge in crude oil will add to expectations that the DOLLAR will raise interest rates, as the UK did this week.During the holiday, Niu Yanjun reviewed the us dollar interest rate hike cycle from the end of 2015 to the end of 2018, and found that the A-share market has turned into A value style from A growth style, when banks, real estate and home appliances with low valuations were favored by institutions.Of course, it also includes all kinds of grass from the beginning of 2016 to see the historical bottom, and is the strongest track stocks of new energy plate.Weak market heavy quality of this feature from the bear market rebound in 2013 fried “five golden flowers” can also reflect this point, and junk stocks are continuing to kill.From the perspective of the coming us dollar interest rate hike cycle, the previous period of track stocks fell sharply, bank stocks rose against the trend, this may be a sign of growth to value stocks switch.Among the banking sector, Bank of Chengdu has a strong recent trend. Among the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter of 2021, Golden Sun Gaoyi Guolu No. 1 Chongyuan Fund of Gaoyi Asset, a well-known institution, ranks the tenth.From the agricultural bank, The bank of China over the years of cash dividends, dividend rate is good.Before the festival, Bull eye Jun listed two more important support level of the fund line, from the current closest one strong support still 38% decline, the second strong support is close to 60% decline.However, the rise and fall of the fund line is different from the index, so it cannot be simply analogous to the index.After the Shanghai Stock Index peaked at 5178 points in 2015, at the beginning of the market decline, bank stocks at that time also went against the trend and strengthened, but the market finally saw the bottom after the bank stocks completed the decline.Could that be the case this time?So when do you step into growth style?From the fund line, at the end of 2018, the fund line fell to strong support.(Source: National Business Daily)