Xinda Securities: yankuang energy buy rating
2022-04-01 Xinda Securities Co., LTD. Zuo Qianming conducted research on Yankuang Energy and released the research report “Good wind with strength, Sailing at the right time”. The report gives a buy rating on Yankuang Energy and the current stock price is 39.0 yuan.Yankuang Energy (600188) Event: On March 30, 2022, the company released the 2021 annual report. During the report period, the company achieved business revenue of 151.99 billion yuan, down 29.30% year on year.Total profit of 18.567 billion yuan, an increase of 171.54%;Net profit of 16.259 billion yuan, up 128.30% year on year;Net profit of returning to mother after deduction was 16.212 billion yuan, up 148.09% year on year;Basic earnings per share were 3.34 yuan, up 1.88 yuan/share compared with 2020.According to the company’s dividend payout plan, in 2021, the company’s dividend will be 2.00 yuan/share (1.6 yuan/share ordinary dividend +0.4 yuan/share special dividend), and the total amount of dividend will be 9.897 billion yuan (including tax). The proportion of dividend will exceed the minimum 50% of the company’s dividend planning commitment by 60.87%.The company achieved operating revenue of 46.955 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, down 6.65% year-on-year and up 18.41% quarter-on-quarter.Net profit of RMB 4.727 billion, up 3215.85% year on year, down 13.89% month on month;The net profit after deduction of non-profits was 4.453 billion yuan, an increase of 173.39% year-on-year, and a decrease of 21.70% quarter-on-quarter.In the fourth quarter, the company’s net profit returned to the parent decreased from the previous quarter, mainly due to the company’s provision of 1.704 billion yuan for asset impairment, which affected the company’s net profit returned to the parent decreased by 938 million yuan.Comments: Affected by regional safety and environmental protection policies, superposition trade coal business has been steadily stripped, and the company’s commercial coal production and sales have declined.The company will produce 105 million tons of commercial coal in 2021, down 15.25 million tons (-12.68%) compared with 2020, and sell 93.832 million tons of self-produced commercial coal, down 18.938 million tons (-16.80%) year-on-year.Shandong headquarters (Company + Heze Energy chemical) sales of commodity coal 2.5071 million tons, down 6.259 million tons (-19.98%);Shaanxi And Mongolia Base (Future Energy + Erdo Energy + Haosheng Coal + Inner Mongolia Mining) sold 25.126 million tons of commodity coal, down 12.131 million tons (-32.56%) year on year, and Australia base (Yancoal Australia + Yancoal International) sold 42.37 million tons of commodity coal, down 158,000 tons (-0.37%) year on year.In the first half of 21st year, shandong base and Shaanxi And Mongolia base were affected by safety and environmental protection policies, and both output and sales declined significantly. In the second half of this year, production gradually recovered, but annual production and sales were under pressure.In 2022, production repression is expected to improve against the backdrop of supply.With the gradual release of the production capacity of yingpanhao and Shilawusu coal mines of 10 million tons, the output of the Australian base remains stable, and it is expected that the overall coal production and sales of the company will increase steadily.Benefit from coal prices, the company’s coal business profit growth.In 2021, the average selling price of the company’s self-produced commodity coal is 716.8 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 297.37 yuan/ton (70.90%). The gross margin is 49.39%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.25 PCT, and the gross profit is 33.223 billion yuan.Among them, the average selling price of commodity coal in Shandong was 919.09 yuan/ton, up 343.66 yuan/ton (59.72%) year on year, and the gross profit margin was 57.4%, up 2.92 PCT year on year, achieving a gross profit of 13.223 billion yuan, accounting for 39.8% of the gross profit of coal business.The average selling price of commodity coal in Shaanxi And Mongolia Base was 628.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 318.89 yuan/ton (103.06%) year-on-year, and the gross margin was 55.9%, down 6.03 PCT year-on-year, realizing gross profit of 8.829 billion yuan, accounting for 26.57% of the gross profit of coal business.The average selling price of Australian base commercial coal was 657.04 yuan/ton, up 250.8 yuan/ton (61.74%) year on year, and the gross margin was 39.6%, up 9.49 PCT year on year, achieving gross profit of 11.037 billion yuan, accounting for 33.22% of the gross profit of coal business.In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the company reclassified transportation expenses to cost of sales, which suppressed the gross margin. After excluding this part of cost, the year-on-year improvement of gross margin will be more significant.It is expected that in 2022, the central price of coal at home and abroad will be significantly higher than that in 2021, and the gross profit margin and gross profit margin of the company’s coal business will be further improved.Chemical plate product price, volume double rise, the development of momentum sail.The company produced 5.794 million tons of chemical products in 2021, an increase of 1.21 million tons (26.59%);Methanol output was 2.503 million tons, 680,000 tons (37.3%) more than last year;An additional 292,000 tons of ethylene glycol were produced.The company’s high-end chemical and new material business transformation is progressing smoothly. The second phase coal chemical project of Ordos Energy Chemical Is put into production smoothly, and the output of methanol and glycol is improved.The 300,000-ton/annual capacity caprolactam plant of Lunan Chemical is put into production smoothly at the end of 21, and it is expected to further increase the company’s coal chemical product output and profit in 22 years.In terms of price, the profitability of the chemical sector increased significantly.In 2021, the gross profit of the chemical business of the company will reach 21.402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.5%. The average selling price of chemical products will reach 4079.68 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1620.28 yuan/ton (65.88%).The gross margin of the chemical business was 32.01%, an increase of 20.33 PCT compared with 2020.Under the background of soaring oil and gas prices, combined with the implementation of the policy of energy consumption of domestic raw materials not included in the double control of energy consumption, modern coal chemical industry with coal sources will benefit significantly. It is expected that the coal chemical industry will maintain prosperity in 22 years, and the company will actively seek breakthroughs in the research and transformation of key core technologies such as clean and efficient utilization of coal.Maintain strategic focus, counter-cyclical investment layout, casting the company’s continuous high growth potential.”Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in” period, the company based on deep understanding of energy structure, coal industry, the industry downturn decisive intensify capital expenditure, in Mongolia region counter-cyclical layout more than thousand – and mine in shandong province in the construction of 1.8 million tons annual output of coking coal ave coal mine, 17 years in Australia to buy coal top coal assets (Australia),In 20 years, it restructured Inner Mongolia Mining (51% equity), and in the same year, it acquired 49.315% equity of Future Energy, 100% equity of Lunan Chemical and equity of other chemical and equipment companies from Yankuang Group at 18.355 billion yuan cash consideration. It deeply integrated the industrial chain, realized the leap-forward development of the company and strengthened its competitive edge in the industry.In 2021, only future Energy and Lunan Chemical assets will generate net profit of 8.89 billion yuan for the company, with an annualized rate of return of more than 49%.The counter-cyclical layout of coal and chemical sectors has laid a solid foundation for the company’s endogenous growth in the future, becoming a very rare coal company with growth attributes.We vigorously carried out the reform of state-owned enterprises and carried out two rounds of equity incentives to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees for entrepreneurship.Since 2018, the company has carried out three rounds of equity incentive plans with Yancoal Australia. By the end of 2021, the current and outgoing directors, supervisors and senior managers of the company hold A total of 977,700 shares of the company.The company’s mixed ownership reform ranks first in the industry, and its corporate governance level ranks first among peers.In 2021, the company’s dividend proportion exceeds the promised proportion of 60%, high dividend and high growth go hand in hand.Actions speak louder than words, the company’s development strategy will be orderly and steady landing.Based on the Development Strategy Outline of Yankuang Energy released by the company in the second half of last year, the company will formulate and implement five industrial “sub-plans” this year. In terms of mining, the company proposes to seek for a batch of high-quality mining resources with good development prospects and low investment costs to acquire opportunities and expand resources and capital reserves.The high-end new chemical materials industry has gone deep into benchmark enterprises of the benchmarking industry to improve production technology, optimize product structure and reduce production costs.The new energy industry has seized the opportunity, made an overall layout, increased capital operation, timely carried out mergers and acquisitions, and increased the proportion of the new energy industry.High-end equipment manufacturing industry focuses on high-end series of flagship products, with “Yankuang” brand to expand the market.Accelerate the construction of Luxi Intelligent manufacturing Park, strengthen joint venture and cooperation of strategic projects, and realize complementary advantages, resource sharing and joint development.Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating:Based on the continuous rise of the average price of coal at home and abroad since the fourth quarter of last year, especially since the first quarter of this year, and the organic growth space of coal and chemical business of the company, we have revised up the company’s profit forecast, and it is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 28.865 billion yuan, 34.578 billion yuan and 40.190 billion yuan respectively.EPS was 5.83 yuan, 6.99 yuan, 8.12 yuan, corresponding to PE 6.6, 5.5 times, 4.7 times (March 31, 2022 closing price 38.34 yuan).We are optimistic about the company’s endogenous extension of the growth space and cost reduction and efficiency, maintain the company’s “buy” rating.Risk factors: serious stall of macroeconomic growth;Less than expected capacity release of projects in production or under construction;Risk of production safety accidents;Safety regulations are tightening restrictions on coal mine production.According to the calculation of research report data released by securities Star data center in the past three years, Guotai Jun ‘an Zhai Kun’s research team has conducted in-depth research on the stock. The average accuracy of forecast in the past three years is 72.82%. The estimated net profit in 2022 is 20.64 billion yuan, and the PE is 9.51 according to the conversion of current price.The latest earnings forecast details are as follows: the stock in the recent 90 days a total of 7 institutions to give ratings, buy rating of 6, neutral rating 1;The average institutional price target over the past 90 days is 26.69.Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that Yankuang Energy (600188) good company rating of 3.5 stars, good price rating of 4 stars, valuation composite rating of 3.5 stars.(Rating range: 1 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars) The above content is collated by Securities Star according to public information, if you have any questions, please contact us.