What is the reason for the recent continuous callback of the new energy vehicle plate?
Since December 2021, the new energy vehicle sector, which previously led the market, continued to pull back.As of February 8, 2022, the new energy vehicle index (930997) since the high retracted nearly 25%, Ningde times since the high fell 22%.New energy vehicle index chart, source: WindFebruary 8 that day, by the net spread “Ningde times is the United States to professional institutions for help, consulting the possibility of sanctions by the United States” and other negative information, Ningde times fell more than 6%, and drove the relevant plate sharply down.Ningde Times stock price trend chart, source: Wind For the recent new energy vehicle sector continued to correction, China Post Venture Fund new energy vehicle sector researcher Teng Fei believes that the main market investment sentiment is affected by relevant information, including the following three aspects:1. Recently, three ministries and commissions issued guidelines to postpone the carbon peak time of the steel industry. The market is concerned that the policy extension will affect the new energy industry.The guidance is mainly for the purpose of stable economic growth and preventing the real economy from overreacting to the dual carbon policy. Currently, the new energy automobile industry is a growth industry with fast growth and high certainty in China. It has always been the direction of national policy support to drive the development of relevant industrial chain and the transformation and upgrading of the traditional automobile industry.In addition, the new energy vehicle industry has moved from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of policies on the industry is getting smaller and smaller. The real demand of the new energy vehicle market has relatively strong resilience to policy changes.2, the market is worried that the US sanctions will expand from the pharmaceutical industry to the new energy vehicle industry.At present, the customers of domestic battery factories are mainly Chinese and European car companies, and the suppliers of new energy vehicles in the United States are mainly Japanese and South Korean battery factories.On the one hand, the American market needs domestic battery factories to reduce production costs. On the other hand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States in 2021 is about 650,000, accounting for about one tenth of the global market. Even if there is a certain change in the demand of the American market, it will have little impact on the domestic industry chain.3. LG Battery is expected to grow only 8% year-on-year in 2022, and the market is worried that the performance of domestic suppliers will be affected.LG’s business includes consumer batteries and power storage batteries. Excluding the impact of consumer batteries, the power storage battery business is expected to grow by about 20%.LG’s domestic suppliers mainly include Zhongwei, Enjie and Putailai, all of which are global manufacturers of high-quality battery materials. The first-quarter production schedule is relatively full and orders are relatively sufficient.According to the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January, the domestic demand is better than the market expectation. Even if the impact of LG’s demand is limited, it can obtain corresponding orders from other battery manufacturers.Teng Fei believes that from a fundamental point of view, the current new energy vehicle industry reflected by the demand of positive factors are more, the fundamentals are still certain, the recent continued retracement of the plate is mainly affected by the instability of capital and mood.Risk tip: there are risks in the market, investment needs to be cautious.This article is for reference only, does not constitute any investment advice and commitment, not fund promotion materials, the stock mentioned in the article does not constitute investment advice.China’s stock market operation time is short, can not reflect the development of all stages of the securities market.